RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, July 15, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Drier air will begin to filter into much of the state today as the upper-level disturbance influencing our pattern in recent days lifts northward and dissipates.
- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the sea breezes as they advance inland today, especially across the Big Bend, Northeast Florida, and interior Peninsula where the highest chances of rain exist (30-40% chance of rain).
- Any thunderstorm activity could become locally strong to severe and capable of producing lightning, gusty winds (30-50 mph), and torrential downpours.
- High temperatures this afternoon will reach the lower to middle 90s throughout much of the state.
- Combined with the humidity, feels-like temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 100s for most locations.
- Locally greater sunshine and humidity will bring heat index values near the upper 100s across Collier County and coastal Southeast Florida where a Heat Advisory is in effect for this afternoon.
- Tonight, a few showers and thunderstorms may linger throughout the Peninsula before dissipating shortly after sunset (15-30% chance of rain).
- Lows will fall into the middle 70s to lower 80s across the state.
- A moderate to high risk for rip currents is outlooked for all Panhandle and East-Central Florida beaches today.
- A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Lower Florida Keys this morning for minor saltwater flooding near and during times of high tide.
- From the National Hurricane Center:
- Northeastern Gulf:An area of low pressure is expected to form during the weekend over the northeastern Gulf of America. Subsequent slow development of this system is possible while it moves slowly northeastward over the northeastern Gulf and or near the southeastern coast of the United States by early next week.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…low… near 0%.
- Formation chance through 7 days…low…20%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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A few showers with embedded storms are ongoing along the Panhandle coastline this morning as an upper-level disturbance and attendant surface front remain positioned near North Florida.
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Additional rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon across much of North Florida courtesy of these features (40-60% chance of rain).
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AMarginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across North Florida wherenuisance flooding and ponding of water will be possible in areas that receive multiple rounds oftorrential downpours, especially in urban and poor-drainage locations.
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Showers and thunderstorms will also develop across the central Peninsula today along the sea breezes and generally push eastward throughout the afternoon and evening (40-60% chance of rain).
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Throughout South Florida, thunderstorm activity will remain isolated as dry Saharan air still lingers (20-35% chance of rain).
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Any thunderstorm throughout the state today could becomelocally strong to severe and capable of producingfrequent lightning andlocally damaging wind gusts (40-60 mph).
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Highs will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s in North Florida andmiddle 90s throughout Central and South Florida.
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Cloud coverage and rainfall will keep peak afternoon heat indices in theupper 90s to lower 100s throughout North and Central Florida.
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However, ample sunshine will allow feels-like temperatures to reach themiddle to upper 100s in portions of South Florida. AHeat Advisory is in effect for coastal Southwest and Southeast Florida this afternoon for heat index values near106-109 degrees.
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Tonight, shower and thunderstorm activity will generally dissipate or push offshore before midnight statewide.
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Lows will fall into the middle 70s to lower 80s across the state.
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A high risk for rip currentsis outlooked for all Panhandle beaches today.
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Tropical cyclone development isnot expected over the next 7 days.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, July 13, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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An upper-level disturbance and attendant frontal boundary will remain draped across the Southeast U.S. today, aiding in scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm development across North Florida throughout the day (65-85% chance of rain).
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A few showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing across the Panhandle where aSlight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been outlooked for instances offlooding and ponding of water, especially in areas that receive multiple rounds of trainingheavy downpours today.
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A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked for the remainder of North Florida.
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Rainfall totals will generally remain around 1-2” throughout North Florida today, however locally higher amountsupwards of 3-5” or more cannot be ruled out.
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A predominate westerly flow across the Peninsula will keep the East Coast sea breeze pinned to the I-95 corridor where a few scattered showers and storms will develop this afternoon (40-60% chance of rain).
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Otherwise, dry Saharan air will linger across West-Central and the majority of South Florida today keeping rainfall activity more isolated in nature (15-30% chance of rain).
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Any thunderstorms statewide could become locally strong to severe and accompanied byfrequent lightning and gusty winds (30-50 mph).
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Ample cloud cover and rainfall will keep high temperatures in the middle to upper 80s across North Florida today, withlower to middle 90sin Central and South Florida.
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Heat indices will remain below advisory criteria throughout the state, however, will approach thelower to middle 100s regardless in South-Central and South Florida where less cloud coverage is expected.
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Tonight, shower and thunderstorm activity will largely dissipate or push offshore before midnight statewide; Lingering activity may remain through the night along the Panhandle and Big Bend coastlines (60-80% chance of rain).
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Lows will fall into the lower 70s in North Florida and middle 70s to lower 80s in Central and South Florida.
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Ahigh risk for rip currentsis outlooked for all Panhandle beaches today where surf of3-5' is expected.
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Tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next 7 days.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, July 12th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Another day of wet and unsettled conditions is on tap for North Florida today as an upper-level disturbance and its associated frontal boundary continues to sag southward.
- Well above-normal column moisture from persistent south/southwesterly flow as of late will allow for scattered to widespread showers and storms to develop and spread eastward as the day progresses.
- Current high-resolution guidance indicates the bulk of today’s activity will likely develop around 12-2PM today, although this morning’s radar imagery is already tracking swaths of showers and storms beginning to move onshore from the Gulf into some Big Bend and Western Panhandle regions.
- Like yesterday, an expansive Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather has been outlooked across portions of the Panhandle, Big Bend, and the East Coast of Florida today where the highest chances are of a few locally strong to severe thunderstorms.
- The primary hazards with any activity will be frequent lightning and locally damaging wind gusts (40-60 mph).
- Today’s storms may be very efficient rain-makers given the high atmospheric moisture and multiple sources of lift present (frontal boundary, sea-breezes, outflow boundaries).
- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding has been outlooked for the entirety of North Florida and portions of North-Central Florida today to highlight this risk.
- The southern half of the state is set to be comparatively much drier as a plume of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) continues to spread through the area.
- This will help limit typical shower and storm development as the SAL and background high pressure work to suppress convection.
- Seasonable heat is expected today. High temperatures will range from the lower 90s across North Florida to the middle 90s across South Florida.
- Differing moisture between the northern and southern portions of the state will yield largely uniform heat indexes today in the middle 100s.
- The hottest areas across the state appear to be Northeast Florida, where afternoon showers and storms are unlikely to reach until later in the day, and across Southeast Florida.
- Heat indexes in these areas may reach into the upper 100s, and Heat Advisories are currently in effect to reflect this threat.
- Showers and storms across the state should taper off quickly following sunset, although a few lingering showers and storms are possible tonight across the Western Panhandle (30-60% chance) and across Northeast Florida (15-30%).
- Lows tonight will fall into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
- A moderate risk for rip currents is expected at all Panhandle and most East Coast beaches today. A low risk is outlooked for the West Coast and Southeast Florida.
- According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 105 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 8,094 acres.
- Tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next 7 days.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, July 11th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Despite some lingering dry, Saharan air across the region, shower and thunderstorm activity will increase in coverage compared to recent days as a bit more tropical moisture attempts to filter into the state.
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A few showers with embedded thunderstorms are already ongoing along the Panhandle coast this morning, and additional activity will develop along the inland advancing Gulf sea breeze today across North Florida (35-50% chance of rain).
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AMarginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather has been outlooked across portions of the Panhandle, Big Bend, and Northeast Florida today where the highest chances are of a fewlocally strong to severe thunderstorms.
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The primary hazards with any activity will befrequent lightning,locally damaging wind gusts (40-60 mph),andtorrential downpours.
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Throughout the Peninsula, a fairly typical summertime distribution of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected as the West Coast and East Coast sea breezes push inland later this afternoon (40-60% chance of rain). Any thunderstorm throughout the Peninsula could also becomelocally strong to severe.
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Shower and thunderstorm activity will largely dissipate or push offshore before midnight across the state.
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Anotherhot and humidday is on tap statewide with ample sunshine expected and humidity remaining elevated.
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High temperatures will climb into themiddle to upper 90s, with feels-like temperatures soaring into themiddle to upper 100s.
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Heat Advisorieshave been issued throughout the Peninsula this afternoon where heat indices are most likely to exceed106-108 degrees.
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Any shower or thunderstorm activity across the state will bring some relief from the heat this afternoon and evening.
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Low temperatures will only fall into the middle 70s to lower 80s by daybreak Sunday.
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Amoderate risk for rip currentsis expected for all Panhandle and most East Coast beaches today.
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Tropical cyclone development isnot expected over the next 7 days.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
