Weather Outlook
Statewide Weather Outlook from FDEM Meteorology
Friday, September 11, 2026
...Scattered to Numerous Showers and Storms Expected Statewide Today.. Locally Heavy Rainfall and Gusty Winds May Accompany the Strongest Storms... Highest Rain Chances Across Southwest Florida and Western Panhandle; Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding Outlooked for Western Panhandle Today... Localized Rainfall Totals Upwards of 2-4" Possible... Monitoring River Rises in Numerous West-Central Florida Waterways; River Flood Warning Remains in Effect for Horse Creek at Arcadia... Hot and Humid Conditions Continue with Highs in the 90s and Feels-like Temps in the Upper 90s to Middle 100s... Moderate Risk for Rip Currents for Many East Coast & Panhandle Beaches... Surf Remains Diminishes to Near 2-3' for East Coast Beaches... No Tropical Cyclone Development Expected in the Next 7 Days in the Atlantic...
Updated at 8:27 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
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No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
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Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Excessive Heat |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
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Locally Southwest FL Statewide |
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Iso. Statewide |
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Iso. I-75 Corridor Statewide
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Western & Central Panhandle
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Locally Big Bend & Suwannee Valley
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East Coast & Panhandle West Coast & Southeast FL |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Richly moist south to southwesterly flow will continue to filter abundant tropical moisture across the Sunshine State today with scattered to numerous showers and storms pushing inland along the sea breezes and increasing in coverage across interior locations. Rain chances will be greatest across the Panhandle and Big Bend today where a few coastal showers are already pushing onshore this morning (75-85% chance of rain). A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across the western and central Panhandle today where multiple rounds of heavy showers and storms may lead to instances of flooding and ponding of water on roadways, especially in urban and poor drainage locations. Showers and storms will be scattered in nature across much of the Peninsula (50-70% chance of rain), with locally higher coverage along the pinned Gulf sea breeze across Southwest Florida (75-85% chance of rain). Although there is no organized risk for flash flooding across the Peninsula, saturated soils from recent days of rainfall could still lead to localized flooding in isolated locations. Any thunderstorm across the state today could become locally strong to severe and contain frequent lightning and gusty winds (40-60 mph).
Highs will climb into the upper 80s to middle 90s across the state, with feels-like temperatures peaking in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Some areas, especially across Western and Southwestern Florida, may briefly reach or exceed 105 degrees before afternoon showers and storms arrive and help bring cooler conditions.
Tonight, showers and storms will generally wane after sunset and begin to dissipate or push offshore before midnight. However, showers and storms will likely linger near the Panhandle coastline overnight and quickly re-emerge onshore early Saturday morning (35-55% chance of rain). Cannot rule out areas of patchy fog developing across portions of the Suwannee Valley towards daybreak on Saturday, especially if winds are able to go fully calm. Lows will fall into the 70s to lower 80s.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days in the Atlantic.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents is outlooked for most East Coast and Panhandle beaches today. A low risk is expected for western Panhandle and Southeast Florida beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Surf will begin to gradually subside for all East Coast shorelines today, with waves of 2-3’ expected. Surf near 1-2’ will continue for all Panhandle and West Coast beaches.
Red Tide: was observed at background concentrations from Franklin County (valid 9/4/26).
Coastal Flooding: There are no coastal flooding concerns across the state.
Fire Weather: The overall wildfire threat will remain low today given high relative humidities, light winds, high rain chances, and highly saturated fuels from recent rains. However, any thunderstorm activity may be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds, which can spark new wildfires or reignite existing ones. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 5 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 958 acres.
Drought (9/8/26): Another wet and unsettled week brought some additional beneficial rainfall and noticeable drought improvements throughout the state on this week’s Drought Monitor update. Much of the area of severe drought (level 2 of 4) throughout interior Northeast and South Florida have been downgraded back down to a moderate drought (level 1 of 4) with only a small footprint of severe drought (level 2 of 4) remaining across the southern tip of the Peninsula and across the central Suwannee Valley. A very small area of extreme drought (level 3 of 4) is still found in southern Columbia County as well. Much of coastal Northeast Florida and areas along and north of the I-10 corridor have returned to abnormally dry (receding drought) conditions with some drought removal entirely in Volusia County. Severe drought (level 2 of 4) also remains in place along the eastern shores of Lake Okeechobee and across much of West-Central Florida with the overall footprint of extreme drought (level 3 of 4) significantly diminishing as well south of the Tampa metro. Some slight expansion of the abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions was observed across the Panhandle in Jackson, Washington, and Bay counties this week. Only 2% of the state remains under an extreme drought (level 3 of 4) with moderate to severe drought (level 1-2 of 4) still covering much of the Peninsula. Looking ahead, wet and unsettled weather is expected to continue throughout much of the state with daily rounds of heavy showers and storms likely bringing additional drought improvements in next week’s update.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 219 (-1) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 2 out of 67 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across the western Panhandle today where multiple rounds of showers and storms under a richly moist southwesterly flow may lead to localized flooding and ponding of water. Although there is no organized risk for flash flooding elsewhere, saturated soils throughout the Peninsula after many days of rainfall may encourage isolated cases of flooding in any areas that receive training or slow-moving thunderstorms today. Rainfall totals will generally amount to 0.5-1” in any areas that do receive heavy thunderstorms today. However, locally higher totals upwards of 2-4” cannot be ruled out. For more information, visit the Weather Prediction Center.
Riverine Flooding: The Horse Creek near Arcadia remains under a Flood Warning with a forecast crest into Minor Flood Stage early next week. All other Flood Warnings have been cancelled throughout West-Central Florida, including for the Alafia River at Lithia, Little Manatee River near Wimauma at US 301 and Manatee River near Myakka Head which are no longer expected to crest above Action Stage (bank-full). The Fisheating Creek at Palmdale also remains in Action Stage (bank-full) until further notice. Updates and changes to these river forecasts are expected throughout the remainder of the weekend and into early next week as it becomes apparent where and how much rainfall falls in each respective river basin each day. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.26 feet, which is 3.21 feet below normal for this time of year and in the water shortage management band.
