Weather Outlook
Statewide Weather Outlook from FDEM Meteorology
Wednesday, September 9, 2026
...Scattered to Widespread Showers and Storms Across the Peninsula Today... Locally Heavy Rainfall and Gusty Winds May Accompany the Strongest Storms... Highest Rain Chance Along the West Coast; Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding Outlooked... Localized Rainfall Totals Upwards of 2-4" Possible... Drier Conditions Expected Across the Panhandle... Unseasonably High Heat Expected With Highs in the 90s and Feels-like Temps in the Upper 90s to Middle 100s... Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents for Many East Coast & Panhandle Beaches... Surf Remains Elevated at 3-5' for Northeast FL Beaches... No Tropical Cyclone Development Expected in the Next 7 Days in the Atlantic...
Updated at 9:50 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
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No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Excessive Heat |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally West Coast Central FL East Coast & Central/Western Panhandle |
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Iso. Statewide |
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Iso. West Coast Statewide
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Southwest FL
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Locally North Florida
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Northeast & East-Central FL, Central Panhandle Western Panhandle, East Coast West Coast & Southeast FL |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
A strong easterly flow regime remains in place across much of the state today. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm development will be focused to the Central and Western portions of the state as this flow orientation helps to push the East Coast sea breeze inland and towards the pinned West Coast sea breeze. This collision of sea breeze boundaries will promote prolific thunderstorm development this afternoon (60-80% chance) along the West Coast of Florida. A localized Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked for portions of Southwest Florida where isolated instances of nuisance or flash flooding may occur, as the day’s thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rainfall overtop already saturated soils from previous days’ rainfalls. In this pattern, the East Coast of Florida will remain comparatively dry (20-40% chance of rain) as the East Coast sea breeze is quickly pushed inland in the late morning hours, shutting off rain chances by early afternoon. The Panhandle will remain similarly dry, as some lingering dry air remains overtop the region.
Highs will climb into the upper 80s to middle 90s across the state, with feels-like temperatures peaking in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Some areas, especially across Western and Southwestern Florida, may briefly reach or exceed 105 degrees before afternoon showers and storms arrive and help cool the surface.
Tonight, showers and storms may linger in the early evening hours along the West Coast and Panhandle before dissipating or pushing offshore before midnight (20-40% chance of rain). Cannot rule out areas of patchy fog developing across portions of North Florida towards daybreak on Thursday, especially if winds are able to go fully calm. Lows will fall into the 70s to lower 80s.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days in the Atlantic.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: A high risk for rip currents is outlooked for Northeast FL, East-Central FL, and Central Panhandle beaches today where breezy onshore winds and elevated surf are expected. A moderate risk for rip currents continues for all other Panhandle and East-Central Florida beaches today. A low risk remains outlooked West Coast and Southeast Florida beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: The first “nor’easter” like conditions of the season have developed across portions of Northeast Florida with an offshore swell and onshore winds bringing surf upwards of 3-5’. Waves near 1-3’ are expected for the remainder of Peninsula beaches. Panhandle beaches will see surf of 2-4’ today.
Red Tide: was observed at background concentrations from Franklin County (valid 9/4/26).
Coastal Flooding: There are no coastal flooding concerns across the state.
Fire Weather: The overall wildfire threat will remain low today given high relative humidities, light winds, high rain chances, and highly saturated fuels from recent rains. However, any thunderstorm activity may be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds, which can spark new wildfires or reignite existing ones. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 9 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 1,026 acres.
Drought (9/1/26): A wet and unsettled week brought some welcomed rainfall and noticeable drought improvements throughout the state. Across South Florida, all areas of extreme drought (level 3 of 4) in interior Miami-Dade and Broward counties have been reduced to a severe drought (level 2 of 4) following a general 2-4 inches of rain this past week. Areas of severe drought (level 2 of 4) across interior St. Lucie, Martin, Manatee, Sarasota, DeSoto, and Charlotte counties has diminished to a moderate drought (level 1 of 4) as well on this week’s update. Some additional improvements were observed in Central Florida with parts of northwestern Hillsborough and northern Pinellas counties previously under an extreme drought (level 3 of 4) now under a severe drought (level 2 of 4). Coastal portions of Pasco and Hernando counties, as well as interior portions of Orange, Lake, and Marion counties, have returned to moderate drought (level 1 of 4) conditions. Other significant drought improvements were observed in Northeast Florida with much of the extreme drought (level 3 of 4) area in the Suwannee Valley going away and returning to a severe drought (level 2 of 4). The overall footprint of the severe drought (level 2 of 4) has shrunk with much more moderate drought (level 1 of 4) returning. Some drought degradation was observed in the Panhandle with new areas of moderate drought (level 1 of 4) in northern Escambia, Santa Rosa, and small portions of northeastern Holmes and northwestern Jackson counties. In this update, only a small portion of the Suwannee Valley and portions of West-Central Florida remain under an extreme drought (level 3 of 4), making up ~3.5% of the state. Areas of moderate to severe drought (level 1-2 of 4) are still found throughout much of the Peninsula. About ~9% of the state remains under no drought designation. Looking ahead, wet and unsettled weather is expected to continue throughout much of the state with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, likely bringing some drought improvements in next week’s update in areas that receive above normal rainfall.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 215 (-13) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 0 out of 67 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked throughout portions of Southwest Florida today. A strong easterly flow regime will help push the East Coast sea breeze inland and towards the West Coast in the late morning to early afternoon hours. A favorable zone of lift for thunderstorm development will set up within Southwest Florida as the East Coast sea breeze collides with the pinned West Coast sea breeze. Thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall courtesy of a deeply moist atmosphere. An isolated nuisance or flash flooding risk is expected today as a result – a threat that is exasperated by the presence of highly saturated soils. which For more information, visit the Weather Prediction Center.
Riverine Flooding: The Fisheating Creek at Palmdale, Horse Creek near Arcadia, and the Withlacoochee River at US 41 Dunnellon are either expected to be or already are in Action Stage (bank-full). There are no other riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.05 feet, which is 3.37 feet below normal for this time of year and in the water shortage management band.
